Process Based Uncertainty Analysis – an Approach to Analyze Uncertainties Using a Process Model

DS 58-2: Proceedings of ICED 09, the 17th International Conference on Engineering Design, Vol. 2, Design Theory and Research Methodology, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 24.-27.08.2009

Year: 2009
Editor: Norell Bergendahl, M.; Grimheden, M.; Leifer, L.; Skogstad, P.; Lindemann, U.
Author: Kloberdanz, Hermann; Engelhardt, Roland; Mathias, Johannes; Birkhofer, Herbert
Series: ICED
Section: Design Theory and Research Methodology
Page(s): 465-474


Uncertainties in technical systems in the field of mechanical engineering occur in all processes throughout the entire life cycle of a product. In general these uncertainties are understood as deviations from the process and product properties. This fact makes it necessary to develop methods for detailed analysis of the occurrence of uncertainties. Since uncertainties occur in processes, they can be analyzed based on a detailed process model. Therefore a new process model is developed by systematic completion of known process models. Based on this process model uncertainties can be identified easily and almost completely. It is possible to use the model to analyze uncertainties deriving from process interactions too. In addition the process based approach delivers a structured understanding of the emergence of uncertainties. Thus it forms a promising basis for the development of methods and tools to analyse uncertainties in general. The developed model is restricted to technical processes at the moment. The process based uncertainty analysis is one method in the Uncertainty Mode and Effects Analysis ? methodology (UMEA) beside others.

Keywords: Process, uncertainty, analysis, process model, method


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